Category Archives: Weekly Outlook

On Wednesday, 2 November, the US Federal Reserve implemented its fourth mega hike, raising interest rates by 75 basis points, or 0.75%, in its continuing fight against high inflation. This brings the current Fed’s benchmark rate to 3.75% – 4%, with rates expected to hit a ceiling at 4.5% – 4.75% in 2023 according toContinue Reading

On Tuesday, 25 October, Rishi Sunak was sworn in as the new Prime Minister of the UK. The 42-year-old is the third UK PM in 7 weeks, replacing Liz Truss, who was PM for the whole of 44 days. Sunak comes at a time of great financial instability for the UK, with Truss’ mini-budget causingContinue Reading

UK Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned last week, making her the UK’s shortest-serving PM at just 44 days in office. Truss’ term has been plagued by criticism for her mini budget program, which included the biggest tax cuts since 1972, but would be largely funded  by a massive expansion in borrowing. The markets are nowContinue Reading

Recession fears are plaguing the markets more strongly than ever. On Wednesday, US Treasury yields hit a 14-year high, with the 10-year note hitting as high as 4.153% as of writing – the highest since 2008’s recession. Meanwhile, the 2-year yield rose by 13 basis points to 4.57%. More importantly, the 3-month rate briefly roseContinue Reading

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng made an unprecedentedly dramatic early exit from an International Monetary Fund event in Washington on Friday, with many thinking it was to return to the UK to prepare his fiscal plan. Turns out, Kwarteng was being asked to leave his post by UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, whoContinue Reading

On Wednesday, 12 October (GMT+3), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (SETO). Forecasts for 2023 revealed an average global oil production of 100.7 million barrels a day – down 600,000 from September’s forecast and reflecting OPEC+’s announced cuts.  Oil consumption for 2023 is forecasted to be 101 million b/d –Continue Reading

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) executive director, Fatih Birol, has said that 90% of gas storage was full in Europe, and that bar surprises, Europe can get through the winter. 2023, however, remains in question because 2022 still saw some Russian gas being imported, as well as lower demand from China due to “sluggish economicContinue Reading

On Wednesday evening (GMT+3), the US ADP Nonfarm Employment data was released, clocking in at 208,000 jobs added, better than the 200,000 forecasted and August’s 185,000. While the manufacturing, natural resources, and mining industries reported a loss of 29,000 positions, huge additions in the trade, transportation, utilities; and business and professional services sectors more thanContinue Reading

Bank of English Stages Emergency Bond Buying as Pound Plunges  The Bank of England, UK’s Central Bank, has announced this week a temporary gilt-buying programme to urgently respond to a “material risk to UK financial stability” after the pound went into free fall after new prime minister Liz Truss announced tax cuts and other spendingContinue Reading

The Bank of England, the UK’s Central Bank, has announced this week a temporary gilt-buying programme to urgently respond to a “material risk to UK financial stability”. This comes as gilt yields were on course for record highs as investors exited UK’s bonds after the government announced underfunded tax cuts and increased spending even asContinue Reading